麻豆APP

 

Global economy?shows resilience,?but?trade tensions and fiscal strains cloud outlook, UN warns??

Declining?inflation and monetary easing offer relief,?yet?subdued investment and lingering uncertainties weigh?on global momentum.??

New York,?8?January?2026?–?Global?economic?output is forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2026,?slightly?below the 2.8 per cent estimated for 2025 and well?below?the pre-pandemic average of 3.2 per cent, according to the?World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026, released?by the 麻豆APP?today.??

During?2025, unexpected resilience to sharp increases in U.S. tariffs, supported by solid consumer spending and easing inflation, helped sustain growth.?However,?underlying weaknesses persist. Subdued investment and limited fiscal space are?weighing on?economic activity, raising the prospect that?the?world economy could settle into a persistently slower growth path than in the pre-pandemic era.??

The report notes that?a partial?easing of?trade tensions?helped limit disruptions to international commerce. However, the impact of higher tariffs, coupled with elevated macroeconomic uncertainties, is?expected to?become more?evident?in 2026.?Financial conditions have eased amid monetary loosening and improved sentiment, but risks?remain?high?given?stretched valuations—especially in sectors linked to rapid advances in artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, high debt levels and borrowing costs are?constraining?policy space, especially?for many developing economies.?

“A combination of economic, geopolitical and technological tensions is reshaping the global landscape, generating new economic uncertainty and social vulnerabilities,”?said 麻豆APP Secretary-General António Guterres. “Many developing economies continue to struggle and, as a result, progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals remains distant for much of the world.”?

Regional?economic?outlook:?expansion?broadly steady,?but uneven??

Economic growth in the United States is projected at 2.0 per cent in 2026,?compared to 1.9 per cent in 2025,?supported by?monetary and fiscal easing. However,?a?softening?labour market?will?likely?weigh?on?momentum. In the European Union,?economic?growth is?forecast?at 1.3 per cent?in 2026,?down from?1.5 per cent in 2025,?as higher U.S. tariffs and?ongoing geopolitical uncertainty?dampen?exports. Output in Japan?is expected to?expand by?0.9 per cent?in 2026,?compared with?1.2 per cent in 2025,?with?a?modest domestic recovery?partly offsetting?weaker external conditions.?In the Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia, growth is projected at 2.1 per cent in 2026,?mostly?unchanged from?2025,?even?as?the war in Ukraine?continues to?weigh on?macroeconomic conditions.??

In East Asia, growth is projected at 4.4 per cent in 2026, down from 4.9 per cent in 2025 as the boost from front-loaded exports fades. China’s economy?is expected to grow by 4.6 per cent, slightly?lower than in 2025,?supported by targeted policy measures. In South Asia, growth?is forecast at?5.6 per cent?in 2026,?easing from 5.9 per cent, led by India’s 6.6 per cent expansion, driven by?resilient consumption and?substantial?public investment.??In Africa, output is?projected?to grow by?4.0 per cent in 2026, marginally up from 3.9 per cent in 2025. However,?high debt and climate-related shocks?pose significant risks.?In Western Asia, GDP is?expected to grow by?4.1 per cent in 2026,?up?from 3.4 per cent in 2025, yet the region?remains?exposed to geopolitical tensions and security risks. In Latin America and the Caribbean, output?is expected to?expand by 2.3?per cent?in 2026, slightly down from 2.4 per cent in?2025,?amid?moderate?growth in consumer demand?and a?mild?recovery in investment.?

International trade?facing?headwinds; investment?remains?subdued?

Global trade proved resilient in 2025,?expanding by?a faster-than-expected 3.8 per cent despite elevated policy uncertainty and rising tariffs. The expansion?was driven by?the?front-loading of shipments early in the year and robust growth in services trade. However, momentum is expected to ease, with trade growth projected to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2026.??

At the same time, investment?growth has?remained?subdued?in most regions, weighed down by geopolitical tensions and tight fiscal conditions. Monetary easing and?targeted?fiscal?measures?have?supported?investment in some economies,?while?rapid advances in artificial intelligence?fuelled?pockets of strong capital spending in?a few large?markets.?The report?cautions, however,?that?the?potential gains from AI, when realised, are?likely to?be?unevenly distributed,?risking a widening of?existing structural inequalities.?

Inflation?continues to?slow, yet?strains to?the?cost of living persist??

The report?also?underscores that?high prices?remain?a key?global?challenge?even as?disinflation continued. Headline inflation?declined?from?4.0 per cent in 2024?to an estimated 3.4 per cent?in 2025?and?is?projected to slow further to 3.1?per cent in 2026. While?overall?inflation has moderated, elevated?prices?continue to?weigh on?real incomes. Unlike the globally synchronized surge of?previous years,?inflation trends have become?more?uneven, shaped by recurring supply?bottlenecks?amid?rising geopolitical and?climaterelated?risks.??

Policymakers face an?increasingly complex?inflation landscape, where supply?risks?call for?a more coordinated and forward-looking approach. Monetary policy?remains?central?but?needs to work?with credible?fiscal frameworks and targeted social measures to?protect vulnerable groups.?Sectoral polices?also play a role?by expanding productive capacity and strengthening supply chains, especially in food,?energy?and?logistics.?Coordinated action across monetary,?fiscal?and industrial policies will be?critical?to managing?persistent price pressures without?compromising?social stability or long-term growth.?

“Even as inflation recedes, high?and still rising?prices?continue to erode the purchasing power of the most vulnerable,” said Li Junhua, 麻豆APP Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. “Ensuring that?lower inflation translates into real improvements for households requires?safeguarding?essential?spending, strengthening?market?competition,?and tackling the structural drivers of recurring?price shocks.”?

Call for?renewed?multilateral?action?

The report underscores that navigating an era of trade realignments, persistent price pressures, and climate-related shocks will demand deeper global coordination and decisive collective action at a time when geopolitical tensions are rising, policies are becoming more inward-looking, and?impetus towards?multilateral solutions is weakening. Sustained progress will depend on rebuilding trust, strengthening predictability, and renewing the commitment to an open, rules-based multilateral trading system.?

The?Sevilla Commitment,?the outcome document of the?,?offers a forward-looking blueprint to strengthen multilateral cooperation, reform the international financial architecture,?and scale up development finance.?Delivering on?its key?priorities—including?clearer debt workout modalities and expanded concessional and climate?finance—is?essential to reducing systemic risks and fostering?a more stable and?equitable?global economy.??

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The?World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026?will be available on?8?January, 12:45?pm?EST at?.?

Press release available in languages at

Hashtag: #WorldEconomyReport?

Media Contacts:??

• Martin Samaan,?UN Department of Global?Communications,??samaanm@un.org??
• Helen Rosengren,?UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs,?rosengrenh@un.org?